Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe9fe…d847 crypto 16 markets active 11d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45 (-13%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$40
crypto 48% −$10
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 38% -21.6%
≤90d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 44% -22.8%
all 16 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 44% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 44% -22.8%
10% -20.7% 44% -30.2%
15% -28.3% 38% -36.9%
20% -35.4% 19% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage66d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 11 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $46 11d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $43 11d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $12 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $19 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $43 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $18 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $13 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records