Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EA 0xea0b…c5f5 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$276 (+4%) realized +$274 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$2,606
sports 29% +$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.1% +6.8% 88% 62% +29.5%
≤30d 8 +18.1% +6.8% 88% 62% +29.5%
≤90d 8 +18.1% +6.8% 88% 62% +29.5%
all 8 +18.1% +6.8% 88% 62% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 62% +29.5%
10% -3.4% 38% +17.1%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 38% +5.8%
20% -21.3% 12% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$459 vs −$105 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.47 per $1 lost it wins $30.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 78¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,891 +$2,438 +129%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $856 +$129 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $367 +$144 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,885 +$17 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $332 +$125 +38%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,743 +$357 +20%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $132 −$105 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,286 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $132 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $126 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $251 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $325 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $249 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,844 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $342 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 56¢ $156 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 26¢ $601 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $169 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 70¢ $798 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 63¢ $581 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 67¢ $416 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $367 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 65¢ $157 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $106 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $334 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $107 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $869 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $55 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $47 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $32 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $14 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.58 · official $28.58 (match) · 65 history records