trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 100% | 0% | -6.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 100% | 0% | -6.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 100% | 0% | -6.1% |
| all | 25 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 92% | 4% | -36.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 4% | -36.3% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 4% | -42.4% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 0% | -48.0% |
| 20% | -32.0% | 0% | -53.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 93¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $2 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Jun 10 | $3 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Mar 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January? | Mar 16 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Mar 16 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | +23% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | Nov 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? | Nov 11 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? | Sep 25 | $10,189 | −$5,214 | -51% |
| Ethereum above $4000 on August 15? | Sep 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? | Sep 19 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? | Aug 15 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Aug 15 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Aug 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | Nov 09 | $7,267 | +$22 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 30 | $20 | $0 | -0% |