Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea0d…5057 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,022 (+9%) realized +$485 · open +$537
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$93
14 days−$82
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$988
other 30% +$83
politics 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.6% +29.9% 50% 50% -18.1%
≤30d 9 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 56% -8.9%
≤90d 14 +34.5% +21.7% 71% 57% +1.7%
all 14 +34.5% +21.7% 71% 57% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 57% +1.7%
10% +10.1% 43% -8.0%
15% -0.6% 43% -16.9%
20% -10.3% 43% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$68 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$6,886
Realized+$485
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)14 / 27
History coverage97d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 72¢ $1,699 $2,012 +$313 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 56¢ $1,599 $1,846 +$248 (+15%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $852 $948 +$96 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 66¢ $408 $445 +$37 (+9%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $395 $380 −$15 (-4%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $300 $304 +$5 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 50¢ $247 $217 −$30 (-12%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 33¢ $249 $176 −$73 (-29%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 30¢ $192 $144 −$48 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $135 −$65 (-32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $122 +$38 (+44%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 83¢ $88 $121 +$32 (+37%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $885 −$202 -23%
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 27 $99 +$109 +110%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $46 −$30 -65%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 17 $226 +$41 +18%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $1,390 +$14 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $250 +$32 +13%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 31 $44 +$58 +132%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $101 +$132 +131%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $399 +$17 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $413 +$219 +53%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 02 $102 −$37 -37%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $312 +$188 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $168 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $251 1h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 43¢ $1 4h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 43¢ $34 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $3 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $33 19h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $35 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $37 22h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $6 23h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $94 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $128 27h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 2d
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 63¢ $96 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $10 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $77 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $42 3d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $140 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $55 4d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,886.07 · official $6,869.58 (match) · 338 history records