Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea0d…2b8e weather 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-0%) realized −$146 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%468W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$84
14 days+$181
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 333 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 496 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 2% -9.6%
all 496 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$7,017
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses468 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)496 / 512
History coverage86d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $740 $741 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $656 $656 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $511 $511 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $425 $425 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $374 $374 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $307 $307 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $223 $223 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? Jun 26 $361 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 25? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $498 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 26 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 26 $999 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $999 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $456 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $371 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $998 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $647 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $666 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $447 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $801 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 24? Jun 25 $234 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 24? Jun 25 $494 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $252 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23? Jun 24 $747 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $394 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $395 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $240 2m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $599 41m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $42 48m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 51m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $89 57m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $599 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $709 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $260 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $405 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $302 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $376 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $313 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $33 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $88 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $250 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $280 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,017.10 · official $7,017.10 (match) · 1639 history records