Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea0d…e1c3 politics 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 901d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$206 (+2%) realized +$182 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%58W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$384
14 days−$100
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$670
sports 18% −$150
other 17% −$693
world 8% +$406
crypto 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% +11.8%
≤30d 30 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 37% -0.7%
≤90d 48 -21.4% -28.9% 31% 31% -17.9%
all 147 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 37% -8.2%
10% -26.4% 33% -17.0%
15% -33.5% 30% -25.0%
20% -40.0% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$48 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

901d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses58 / 89
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage901d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 62¢ $26 $50 +$24 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $164 +$136 +83%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $105 −$104 -98%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $122 −$120 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $122 +$78 +64%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $3 +$7 +216%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$332 +325%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $66 −$65 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $61 +$72 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 +$136 +134%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $483 +$210 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $42 −$41 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$83 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$15 -15%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $138 −$136 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 +$153 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $99 +$206 +208%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? May 22 $99 −$75 -76%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-03-09? May 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-03-15? May 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? May 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times during address to UN May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August? May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August? May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? May 22 $167 −$167 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $54 +$53 +97%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $30 +$76 +255%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 15 $100 −$72 -72%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $60 +$140 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $164 19h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $105 20h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $122 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $110 41h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 41h
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Senegal 31¢ $3 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $111 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $61 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 23¢ $102 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $66 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $61 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 12¢ $21 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $20 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $593 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 46¢ $39 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 41¢ $42 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 8d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $100 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 91¢ $100 9d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $88 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 11d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $138 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 13d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $153 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $1 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $61 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 504 history records