Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea19…d28f world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$4
other 20% +$3
politics 9% +$1
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.0% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 12 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 0% -10.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage480d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 67¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $58 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $31 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $18 $0 +3%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $9 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 20 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $19 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $12 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $24 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $29 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $12 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $17 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $35 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $29.84 (match) · 84 history records