Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea1a…baf2 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$9 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$4
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 32% -6.1%
≤30d 19 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 32% -6.1%
≤90d 19 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 32% -6.1%
all 19 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 32% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 32% -6.1%
10% -49.2% 32% -15.1%
15% -54.1% 26% -23.3%
20% -58.6% 21% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $105 $82 −$22 (-21%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $18 +$17 +94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$22 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $107 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.00 · official $123.00 (match) · 33 history records