Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea20…5143 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
politics 21% −$1
other 21% −$2
world 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 152 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage157d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 96¢ $33 7d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 96¢ $33 7d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $43 18d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $43 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 89¢ $40 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 91¢ $41 33d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 118d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 118d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 118d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 118d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 118d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $45 118d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $43 118d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $43 118d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 97¢ $10 118d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 97¢ $10 118d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 118d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 118d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $44 118d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $42 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $42 118d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $41 118d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $41 118d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 118d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 118d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $49 119d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $49 119d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $40 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.83 · official $43.85 (match) · 545 history records