Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea24…c677 world 30 markets active 3d ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 35% +$1
tech 8% −$1
finance 3% $0
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 14% -9.9%
≤30d 16 +16.8% +5.7% 31% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +16.8% +5.7% 31% 12% -9.6%
all 28 +6.5% -3.7% 29% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -12.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -21.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -29.0% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage413d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? May 07 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? May 07 $173 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in April? May 06 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 30 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? Apr 29 $189 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $50 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $0.00 · 127 history records