Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea28…3a0b other 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,826 (-22%) realized −$10,502 · open −$324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%141W / 90L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day155.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$89
world 27% +$129
politics 17% +$238
tech 6% +$303
crypto 4% −$412
culture 2% +$105
sports 1% +$111
economics 1% +$10
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -3.2% -12.5% 60% 10% -8.2%
≤30d 231 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 17% -7.3%
≤90d 231 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 17% -7.3%
all 231 +14.1% +3.2% 61% 17% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 17% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 12% -16.2%
15% -15.7% 9% -24.3%
20% -23.9% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,527
Realized−$10,502
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses141 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions62
Markets (closed)231 / 289
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day155.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $144 $139 −$5 (-3%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $108 $100 −$8 (-7%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? No 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 88¢ $93 $87 −$5 (-6%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 81¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $83 $81 −$1 (-2%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $88 $81 −$8 (-9%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $82 $80 −$1 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $82 $78 −$5 (-5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 82¢ 74¢ $82 $75 −$8 (-9%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 55¢ 34¢ $110 $67 −$43 (-39%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? No 41¢ 22¢ $82 $45 −$37 (-45%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1,576 +$12 +1%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $667 +$75 +11%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $310 −$8 -3%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 18 $1,077 −$22 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $75 −$9 -12%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 17 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $789 +$6 +1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $397 −$7 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 17 $89 +$7 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $273 +$2 +1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $136 +$47 +34%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $517 +$7 +1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $142 +$3 +2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 17 $266 −$2 -1%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $474 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $343 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $176 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +41%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $374 +$6 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $263 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $192 +$3 +1%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $72 −$50 -69%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $148 −$9 -6%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $197 +$171 +87%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $284 +$6 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 16 $249 +$95 +38%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 16 $167 +$7 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $398 +$2 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 4m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 7m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 71¢ $27 14m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 15m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 71¢ $39 15m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 28m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $0 40m
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $40 54m
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $32 54m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 29¢ $29 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 36¢ $36 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 2¢ $4 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $4 3h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $2 3h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $17 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 36¢ $36 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,527.22 · official $2,526.83 (match) · 3500 history records