Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea2e…c707 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$89
crypto 45% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 52% -10.2%
≤30d 27 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 52% -10.2%
≤90d 27 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 52% -10.2%
all 27 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 52% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 48% -18.8%
15% -36.2% 44% -26.7%
20% -42.4% 44% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $585 +$89 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$29 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$23 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $674 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $585 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $57 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $19 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $39 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $37 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records