Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea30…f2a9 world 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$526 (+4%) realized +$159 · open +$367
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%66W / 49L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,053now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$166
14 days+$590
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$457
politics 8% +$697
other 6% −$262
finance 3% +$67
crypto 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.5% +0.8% 50% 25% +1.0%
≤30d 33 +61.4% +46.0% 58% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 92 +11.3% +0.7% 55% 37% -6.0%
all 115 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 42% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 42% -5.8%
10% +1.1% 30% -14.8%
15% -8.7% 20% -23.0%
20% -17.6% 16% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,053
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$367
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses66 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage122d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? Yes 55¢ 98¢ $466 $823 +$356 (+76%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 68¢ 68¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-0%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? Yes 53¢ 63¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+19%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $110 −$14 -13%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $117 +$2 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 +$59 +197%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $307 +$259 +84%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $530 −$94 -18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $240 +$18 +8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $88 −$60 -68%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $377 +$341 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $68 −$32 -47%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $144 +$38 +26%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $39 +$10 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $864 +$102 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $351 −$25 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $191 −$10 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $70 +$25 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $8 +$6 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $190 +$10 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%? Jun 01 $202 +$228 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $194 +$6 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $307 +$29 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $2,110 −$754 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $842 +$10 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $237 +$12 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $1,061 −$58 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $207 +$55 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $904 +$125 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $39 −$20 -51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $75 −$12 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $63 +$6 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $41 −$32 -79%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $35 −$14 -39%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $46 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $278 +$21 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $74 −$1 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 22 $224 +$106 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $85 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $176 +$23 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $178 +$8 +4%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%? May 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $120 +$28 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $189 +$35 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $51 −$21 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 13 $7 −$1 -15%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 13 $55 +$7 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $46 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $358 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $70 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $156 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $73 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $23 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $99 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $21 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $22 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $5 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $50 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $426 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $79 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $61 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $87 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,052.67 · official $1,052.67 (match) · 626 history records