Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xea33…b237 crypto 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (459 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,047 (-10%) realized −$2,053 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%186W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day458.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$492
7 days−$2,145
14 days−$2,241
30 days−$2,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,770
other 3% −$438
sports 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (459 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -20.7% -28.2% 40% 36% -20.7%
≤30d 462 -20.4% -27.9% 40% 36% -19.7%
≤90d 462 -20.4% -27.9% 40% 36% -19.7%
all 462 -20.4% -27.9% 40% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover458.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 36% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 32% -27.4%
15% -41.1% 28% -34.4%
20% -46.9% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2,053
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses186 / 276
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)462 / 457
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day458.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 76¢ 55¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 23¢ 46¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 51¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$88 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$30 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$86 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $143 +$37 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$17 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$43 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$35 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $132 −$51 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$22 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$3 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$14 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $19 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.34 · official $43.16 · 3500 history records