Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea35…a6cb politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$2
sports 23% −$1
other 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -4.0% -13.1% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage222d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $81 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $81 $0 +0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $83 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 15d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $84 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 38d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 105d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 109d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 115d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 130d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 139d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 139d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 142d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 143d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 145d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $82 146d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $82 147d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 148d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 149d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 150d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 155d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 156d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 158d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 158d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $83 160d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 161d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $83 161d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $83 162d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 162d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 165d
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $82 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records