Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EA 0xea38…b9dd world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 55L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$35
other 7% $0
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% −$3
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 33 -0.9% -10.4% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 84 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -29.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage469d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $593 +$6 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $182 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 −$3 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $151 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $179 +$2 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $219 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $185 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $192 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $129 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $176 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $230 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $331 +$2 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $161 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $599 +$15 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $173 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $150 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $153 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $151 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $166 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1,044 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1,044 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $1,988 +$15 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $0 $0 +83%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $6 +$2 +43%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $77 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $181 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $181 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $143 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $182 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $118 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $64 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $173 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $88 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $94 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.88 · official $77.88 (match) · 289 history records