Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea3d…6bde crypto 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,273 (+35%) realized +$1,273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%96W / 148L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$1,876
14 days+$1,492
30 days+$1,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$640
sports 32% +$807
other 16% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 39% +60.6%
≤30d 122 -1.0% -10.5% 39% 36% +34.6%
≤90d 165 -7.0% -15.9% 38% 35% +32.0%
all 244 -12.3% -20.6% 39% 36% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 36% +22.9%
10% -28.2% 31% +11.1%
15% -35.2% 25% +0.4%
20% -41.5% 19% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses96 / 148
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage110d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $80 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET Jun 29 $141 +$118 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $115 +$39 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 29 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $198 −$150 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$20 -61%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $81 −$75 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $101 $0 -0%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$217 +2113%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $8 +$3 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $25 +$22 +88%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $38 +$113 +294%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $70 +$31 +45%
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $23 +$10 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 +$3 +3%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $375 +$1,052 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$10 -68%
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $121 −$115 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $37 −$21 -57%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $67 −$51 -77%
Belgium to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 27 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $53 −$47 -89%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $89 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $32 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $35 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $17 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $8 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1097 history records