Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xea3f…1422 crypto 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$190 (+9%) realized +$205 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%48W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$434
14 days+$304
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$423
other 21% −$81
crypto 21% −$98
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +80.8% +63.6% 22% 22% +53.8%
≤30d 244 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% +1.3%
≤90d 244 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% +1.3%
all 244 -12.5% -20.9% 20% 20% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 20% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 18% -8.4%
15% -35.4% 18% -17.2%
20% -41.7% 16% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$4 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses48 / 196
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)244 / 247
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 2¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-79%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $33 +$3 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 +$74 +718%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $18 +$83 +465%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $9 −$7 -72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -46%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $27 +$190 +712%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +2328%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$14 +463%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $12 −$3 -24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$73 +237%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $56 −$16 -29%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$50 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $92 +$40 +43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$44 +1229%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $24 +$60 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$49 +4752%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $13 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 26¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 14¢ $34 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $15 3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $15 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 3¢ $3 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $9 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $3 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $27 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 8¢ $9 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $12 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.16 · official $6.25 · 547 history records