Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xea41…1c98
world · 512 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,141 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,320 · open +$1,150
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,069
Realized−$2,320
Unrealized+$1,150
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses233 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions50
Markets (closed)462 / 512
History coverage276d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 50 History 462 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days+$271
14 days+$956
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,205 $2,273 +$69 (+3%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,214 $1,266 +$52 (+4%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 77¢ 92¢ $917 $1,091 +$174 (+19%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 32¢ 46¢ $460 $659 +$199 (+43%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 20¢ 51¢ $239 $618 +$379 (+158%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 91¢ 88¢ $614 $597 −$17 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $698 $532 −$165 (-24%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $396 $400 +$4 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $375 $384 +$10 (+3%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 89¢ $311 $364 +$53 (+17%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 26¢ 55¢ $167 $353 +$186 (+112%)
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? No 68¢ 46¢ $388 $264 −$124 (-32%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 25¢ 48¢ $136 $262 +$126 (+93%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $253 $257 +$4 (+2%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $87 $191 +$104 (+119%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 60¢ $62 $149 +$86 (+138%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 42¢ 64¢ $85 $128 +$43 (+51%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $123 $120 −$3 (-3%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $96 $107 +$11 (+11%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No 60¢ 74¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $61 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 +$4 +359%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $504 +$261 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,555 −$406 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $330 +$8 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $380 −$53 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $470 +$5 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $65 −$8 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $800 −$31 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $4,224 +$679 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $1,594 −$439 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $195 +$48 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $834 −$26 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,300 +$89 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $45 −$18 -39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $395 +$20 +5%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 11 $35 +$66 +189%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $265 +$54 +20%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $385 +$356 +92%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $187 +$16 +9%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $50 +$14 +29%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 10 $220 +$8 +4%
Another Canada election called by June 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -83%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $25 −$18 -70%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 09 $669 +$26 +4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $134 +$4 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $541 −$88 -16%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $123 +$65 +53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,466 +$110 +8%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 08 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 08 $372 −$217 -58%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $88 +$74 +84%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $996 −$196 -20%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 07 $87 −$85 -99%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +255%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $65 −$27 -42%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $94 −$86 -91%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $408 −$1 -0%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $391 −$382 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $522 −$186 -36%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1,227 +$40 +3%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $37 +$12 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $825 +$79 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $91 −$10 -11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $113 +$74 +65%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $6 +$10 +171%
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $15 +$35 +224%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$3,281
other 14% −$1,408
politics 9% −$2,192
sports 1% −$881
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% +$58
crypto 0% −$18
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $31 16m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $180 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $4 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $48 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $21 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $274 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $51 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $52 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $18 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $79 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $90 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $42 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $380 36h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $254 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $400 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $500 36h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $239 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $123 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $208 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $200 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $274 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $123 46h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 2d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $17 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +11.7% +1.1% 58% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 121 +8.3% -2.1% 53% 30% -9.0%
≤90d 337 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 23% -16.4%
all 462 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 30% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 20% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 14% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,068.76 · official $11,071.41 (match) · 3500 history records