Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea44…7e91 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,941 (-3%) realized −$1,950 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,618per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$1,196
14 days−$1,242
30 days−$1,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$988
world 11% +$63
other 4% −$1,124
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 46% -51.8%
≤30d 16 +1.9% -7.8% 62% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 30 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 27% -10.9%
all 30 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 27% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 20% -19.5%
15% -32.3% 13% -27.2%
20% -39.0% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,786) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$323 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1,010
Realized−$1,950
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1,618
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $165 $184 +$20 (+12%)
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $141 $156 +$15 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $165 $136 −$28 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $97 $112 +$16 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $79 $112 +$34 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $113 $86 −$27 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $75 $66 −$8 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? No 5¢ 6¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $88 +$45 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $208 −$205 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $966 −$963 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $67 −$63 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $672 +$28 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$14 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 +$9 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $28 +$7 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $77 −$46 -60%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $10,822 +$118 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $13,618 −$78 -1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $12,301 +$855 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 18 $1,874 +$65 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? May 12 $560 −$17 -3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $1,116 −$1,080 -97%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 03 $971 −$911 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6,927 +$63 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $4,009 +$4 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $27 −$12 -44%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $309 +$12 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 20 $6,702 +$142 +2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? Apr 13 $1,786 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 12 $14 +$4 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $94 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $37 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $27 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $18 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $152 3h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 5¢ $24 23h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 5¢ $1 26h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 5¢ $0 31h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 6¢ $31 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $38 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $256 2d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 15¢ $56 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $646 2d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 22¢ $12 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,009.55 · official $1,009.75 (match) · 328 history records