Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea49…8665 politics 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$1
world 26% −$10
sports 22% $0
other 6% +$1
tech 4% −$4
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -5.9% -14.8% 27% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 22 -3.1% -12.4% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 59 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage323d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $195 −$6 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 −$7 -22%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $61 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $185 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -51%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $67 +$3 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $35 −$5 -14%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $594 +$1 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $540 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $540 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $105 −$3 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $541 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $542 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $542 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 09 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 08 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $2 $0 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Aug 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 01 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $77 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $57 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $85 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $86 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $48 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $72 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $63 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $58 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $77 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $77 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $75 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $82 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.44 · official $76.44 (match) · 184 history records