Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea4c…d102 world 42 markets active 10h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 27% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
sports 6% +$10
politics 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -2.8% -12.1% 50% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -8.8%
10% -20.5% 5% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 2% -25.5%
20% -35.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage470d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$2 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $24 $0 +0%
Bolsonaro arrested before April? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $25 $0 +0%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say 'Gulf of America' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 20 $22 +$1 +4%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 20 $20 $0 +2%
Tulane vs. Tulsa Mar 04 $13 +$9 +70%
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $11 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $36 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $46 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $35 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $13 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $14 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $53 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $53 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $48 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $16 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $15 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $11 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $32 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records