Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea4c…2e05 sports 39 markets active 4h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$654 (-4%) realized −$655 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$34
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 18% +$83
sports 16% −$517
other 16% +$31
economics 15% −$605
politics 14% +$161
world 10% +$106
finance 6% +$37
tech 5% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -22.9% -30.3% 50% 50% -39.1%
≤90d 16 -43.5% -48.9% 44% 25% -25.4%
all 36 -21.3% -28.8% 69% 17% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 17% -13.3%
10% -35.6% 14% -21.6%
15% -41.9% 11% -29.2%
20% -47.6% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$842) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$143 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$655
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage234d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $53 +$34 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $89 −$88 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $108 −$106 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $104 +$45 +44%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 14 $104 −$103 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 06 $103 −$102 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 06 $226 +$52 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $499 +$12 +2%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 24 $114 −$112 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 16 $143 +$89 +62%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 04 $29 −$29 -98%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 04 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 04 $939 +$37 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $885 +$88 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $842 +$47 +6%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $783 +$59 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 11 $764 +$19 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $723 +$40 +6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $714 +$9 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $686 +$28 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $26 +$10 +39%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,268 +$57 +4%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 22 $1,179 +$89 +8%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 14 $1,089 +$90 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $1,018 +$70 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $34 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,148 +$14 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $79 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $74 +$10 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $893 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $53 9d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $89 16d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $108 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $104 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $104 37d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 61¢ $103 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $499 53d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 81¢ $226 53d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 58¢ $114 57d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 65d
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $50 65d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 61¢ $143 69d
Pistons vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 44¢ $29 77d
Magic vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 40¢ $85 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $939 93d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $13 95d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 70¢ $8 95d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $13 95d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $33 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $481 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $353 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 91¢ $18 104d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $842 117d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 93¢ $783 129d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $764 136d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $723 155d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY No 99¢ $714 164d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $686 182d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $50 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.86 · official $129.86 (match) · 188 history records