Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EA 0xea4d…92f5 crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$228 (-4%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%64W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$362
other 22% +$113
politics 3% $0
world 0% +$23
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.9% -26.6% 46% 46% +2.4%
≤30d 13 -18.9% -26.6% 46% 46% +2.4%
≤90d 29 -17.2% -25.1% 48% 48% -4.8%
all 112 -10.6% -19.2% 57% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 47% -13.2%
10% -26.9% 38% -21.5%
15% -34.0% 31% -29.1%
20% -40.4% 25% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$29 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses64 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage128d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$37 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $12 +$12 +97%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $15 +$3 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 31 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 31 $5 +$5 +110%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 27 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 27 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 27 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 27 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 27 $64 −$42 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 27 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 27 $20 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 27 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 27 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 61d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 71d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 71d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 72d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 75d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 75d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 75d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 75d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records