Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea52…7c37 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$11
world 6% −$54
other 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.7% -18.3% 75% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 20 -9.7% -18.3% 75% 25% -13.7%
≤90d 20 -9.7% -18.3% 75% 25% -13.7%
all 20 -9.7% -18.3% 75% 25% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -13.7%
10% -26.1% 5% -22.0%
15% -33.3% 5% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $90 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $85 +$4 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $81 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $67 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $57 +$11 +18%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $56 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $55 +$2 +3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $52 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $16 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $55 −$25 -45%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $38 +$4 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $33 +$5 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis SELL ECHO 100¢ $92 32m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 98¢ $90 37m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $90 55m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 99¢ $89 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Zero Tenacity 80¢ $89 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 76¢ $85 1h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe SELL OG 100¢ $85 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 95¢ $81 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL FOKUS 100¢ $81 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 83¢ $67 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FOKUS 100¢ $68 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 84¢ $57 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie SELL Walczaki 100¢ $57 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 99¢ $56 5h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 100¢ $57 22h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 97¢ $55 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $55 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 94¢ $52 23h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 100¢ $52 23h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 96¢ $50 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 77¢ $22 24h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $23 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 72¢ $16 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $16 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 10¢ $0 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 87¢ $14 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 28¢ $14 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 77¢ $41 29h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 96¢ $41 29h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 98¢ $42 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records