Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea52…ea25 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-1%) realized −$188 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%93W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$147
politics 27% −$119
other 20% −$165
tech 12% +$261
sports 3% +$35
culture 3% −$122
economics 2% −$29
finance 2% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.7% -3.5% 75% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 6 -9.2% -17.9% 67% 50% -26.5%
≤90d 34 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 38% -10.3%
all 138 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -11.0%
10% -16.8% 28% -19.5%
15% -24.8% 22% -27.3%
20% -32.2% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$40 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$827
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses93 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage320d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $400 $467 +$67 (+17%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 28 $201 +$27 +13%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $73 −$4 -6%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $282 +$36 +13%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $280 +$19 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $231 +$34 +15%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $556 −$387 -70%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $150 +$5 +4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $386 +$224 +58%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 16 $43 +$2 +5%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 12 $200 +$10 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 01 $179 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Apr 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 18 $70 +$23 +32%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $80 +$4 +6%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 14 $50 +$11 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 13 $50 +$1 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $20 −$1 -5%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $240 +$48 +20%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $254 +$1 +0%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $90 +$8 +9%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 30 $295 −$167 -57%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Mar 28 $30 −$5 -18%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $70 +$252 +360%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Mar 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $150 +$8 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $37 −$4 -11%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $30 +$4 +14%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) Mar 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Mar 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-10? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 48¢ $82 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $83 5h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 40¢ $68 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 20¢ $68 4d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $319 4d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $282 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $299 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $31 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $21 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 17d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 21¢ $52 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $151 20d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $103 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 26d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 73¢ $13 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $150 31d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 78¢ $149 32d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 96¢ $150 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 99¢ $132 33d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 33d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $51 34d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 65¢ $30 34d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 72¢ $61 39d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 36¢ $72 39d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 73¢ $415 39d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? SELL Yes 91¢ $610 39d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 42d
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 42d
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 57¢ $210 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.52 · official $826.52 (match) · 624 history records