Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea56…ef48 crypto 65 markets active 4d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-8%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%35W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$18
crypto 42% −$21
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 54% -15.6%
≤30d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 54% -15.6%
≤90d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 54% -15.6%
all 64 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 55% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 55% -17.4%
10% -21.7% 48% -25.3%
15% -29.3% 41% -32.5%
20% -36.2% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage216d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 29¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$8 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +166%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$4 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.82 · official $6.82 (match) · 157 history records