Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea56…8de3 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+14%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$18
sports 42% +$49
crypto 16% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 50% +4.9%
all 4 +1.4% -8.2% 75% 50% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% +4.9%
10% -17.0% 50% -5.1%
15% -25.0% 25% -14.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$45 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $191 +$49 +25%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$45 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $136 +$63 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $176 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $62 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records