Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea57…b019 crypto 1602 markets active 7h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%1363W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$68
14 days−$71
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -60.5% -64.2% 36% 18% -51.1%
≤30d 127 -30.5% -37.1% 61% 33% -27.7%
≤90d 964 -3.2% -12.5% 84% 45% -10.9%
all 1636 -2.0% -11.4% 83% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 33% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 3% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1363 / 273
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1636 / 1602
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1636 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1019%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -696%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -674%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1652%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -930%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -630%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1020%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1007%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2005%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1736%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1050%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1201%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records