Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea59…3b63 other 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,030 (+46%) realized +$1,030 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$161
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,350
politics 43% −$120
sports 11% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -83.5% -85.1% 0% 0% -87.5%
≤30d 5 -83.5% -85.1% 0% 0% -87.5%
≤90d 5 -83.5% -85.1% 0% 0% -87.5%
all 16 -34.0% -40.3% 31% 31% +33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 31% +33.0%
10% -46.0% 19% +20.3%
15% -51.2% 19% +8.6%
20% -56.0% 19% -2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$59 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,030
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage590d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$15 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$19 -73%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Oct 26 $332 −$332 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 21 $87 +$188 +216%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 21 $830 +$1,364 +164%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Bilibili Gaming Oct 04 $18 +$2 +12%
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 13 $29 −$14 -48%
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. G2 Jul 02 $10 −$10 -100%
MSI Play-in: G2 vs. GAM Jun 30 $102 −$73 -72%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $500 +$65 +13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 03 $100 +$56 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $19 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No $7 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $15 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? BUY No $300 235d
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? BUY No $32 235d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? SELL Yes 28¢ $274 240d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? SELL Yes 75¢ $2,193 240d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? BUY Yes 28¢ $712 252d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes $73 252d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes $14 252d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? BUY Yes 28¢ $117 252d
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? BUY Yes $5 340d
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 340d
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 340d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records