Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EA 0xea5b…9192 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$191 (+14%) realized +$196 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$43

7 days+$370

14 days+$578

30 days+$578

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+61.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+84.8%	+67.2%	56%	56%	+38.5%
≤30d	22	+78.7%	+61.7%	64%	59%	+41.5%
≤90d	22	+78.7%	+61.7%	64%	59%	+41.5%
all	22	+78.7%	+61.7%	64%	59%	+41.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+61.7%	59%	+41.5%
10%	+46.2%	59%	+27.9%
15%	+32.1%	59%	+15.6%
20%	+19.2%	55%	+4.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +79% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +153% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$68 vs −$47 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$162

Realized+$196

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage11d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$67	$64	−$2 (-4%)
Spread: France (-2.5)	France	57¢	55¢	$57	$54	−$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$43	$42	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$23	−$23	-100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$51	+$110	+216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$49	+$51	+105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 19	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 19	$101	−$101	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia vs. South Africa end i	Jun 19	$26	+$93	+364%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$62	+$38	+61%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$105	+207%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$51	+$81	+158%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$23	+$77	+335%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$28	+$72	+257%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$22	+$78	+354%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$57	+$143	+250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$47	+$3	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$64	+$36	+57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$59	−$44	-75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$47	+93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$50	+$22	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$44	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$68	1h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	57¢	$58	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY	25¢	$51	19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	27¢	$51	19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1	36h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$22	36h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	56¢	$101	46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	31¢	$51	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$49	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$62	3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia vs. South Africa end i	BUY	21¢	$26	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	32¢	$51	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	38¢	$51	6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$23	6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$28	6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$22	6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$57	7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	15¢	$15	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$47	8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$60	8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$64	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.50 · official $161.50 (match) · 48 history records