Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5b…40ca crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,506 (-1%) realized −$2,506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%237W / 35L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$3,529
14 days−$3,075
30 days−$3,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,212
sports 1% −$404
weather 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 1% -11.8%
≤30d 142 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 1% -11.0%
≤90d 272 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 9% -10.5%
all 272 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 9% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 6% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 5% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$172 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses237 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage56d
Avg bet$871
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1,401 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1,401 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1,481 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1,401 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1,039 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,440 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1,401 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1,119 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,501 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2,397 −$2,363 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2,374 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1,350 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2,336 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $386 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2,308 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2,287 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2,123 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2,245 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $2,223 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2,202 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2,179 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $2,160 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1,550 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1,841 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2,107 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $1,785 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2,067 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2,049 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $2,030 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $725 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2,470 −$2,470 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1,613 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1,918 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2,413 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2,388 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $359 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2,359 +$24 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $984 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,401 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $942 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $157 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $89 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,401 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1289 history records