Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5e…a678 weather 1002 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,737 (+13%) realized +$1,598 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%348W / 593L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$1,090
14 days+$1,594
30 days+$1,671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,913
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +20.1% +8.7% 56% 53% +15.9%
≤30d 326 +11.2% +0.6% 48% 46% +14.4%
≤90d 941 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 35% +3.4%
all 941 -3.9% -13.0% 37% 35% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 35% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 31% -6.5%
15% -29.0% 26% -15.5%
20% -35.9% 23% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized+$1,598
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses348 / 593
Open positions27
Markets (closed)941 / 1002
History coverage89d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 22¢ 99¢ $27 $122 +$95 (+354%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 33¢ 99¢ $24 $72 +$48 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? No 53¢ 60¢ $43 $50 +$7 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 42¢ $23 $44 +$21 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 73¢ 70¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 85¢ 80¢ $43 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 86¢ 79¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? No 74¢ 98¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 67¢ 78¢ $31 $37 +$5 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 78¢ 99¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 63¢ 40¢ $34 $22 −$12 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 71¢ 78¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 30¢ 35¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 58¢ 58¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 45¢ 38¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $13 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $19 +$28 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $25 +$33 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $31 +$21 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $38 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $16 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $19 +$62 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$20 +67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $14 +$19 +142%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $17 +$19 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $53 −$25 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$40 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $68 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $38 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$8 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $19 +$59 +308%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $16 +$14 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $19 +$82 +422%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $34 +$73 +213%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 +$13 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $24 +$9 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $32 −$9 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $35 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$59 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 30¢ $19 16m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 21m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $44 27m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $9 40m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 48m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $11 58m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.03 · official $803.27 (match) · 2498 history records