Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea5f…73fc other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%25W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$25
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$30
politics 27% −$25
sports 17% −$15
crypto 8% −$18
economics 5% −$4
culture 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
finance 2% −$4
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 78 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 158 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 169 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses25 / 144
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage100d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $54 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $126 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $194 −$3 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $274 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $525 −$2 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $49 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $331 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 43m
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $43 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $44 12h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $65 13h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 30h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 30h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 34h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $54 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $54 43h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 43h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $51 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $52 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $38 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $39 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $53 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.48 · official $9.48 (match) · 697 history records