Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea60…e977 sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,037 (-17%) realized −$12,009 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%119W / 112L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$466
14 days−$466
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$3,854
other 27% −$7,448
crypto 13% −$293
world 0% −$336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +106.1% +86.4% 30% 25% -30.0%
≤30d 22 +91.5% +73.2% 27% 23% -30.5%
≤90d 66 +30.2% +17.8% 42% 41% -7.8%
all 231 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -25.0%
10% -16.3% 39% -32.2%
15% -24.4% 33% -38.7%
20% -31.8% 29% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$240 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$12,009
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses119 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions5
Markets (closed)231 / 241
History coverage257d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $364 $355 −$10 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $33 $18 −$15 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 +$3 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $96 −$66 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng Jun 17 $103 −$23 -23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 17 $103 −$23 -23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $92 +$219 +239%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $195 −$192 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $167 +$121 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $79 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $240 −$237 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $249 −$246 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $137 −$135 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 13 $1 +$22 +1521%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $225 +$200 +89%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 25 $24 −$2 -9%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $309 −$305 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 07 $149 −$147 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 06 $188 +$46 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 06 $197 +$188 +95%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $129 +$120 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 03 $158 −$10 -7%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $199 +$201 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Apr 28 $117 +$93 +79%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $59 +$55 +93%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Apr 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Apr 09 $214 −$211 -98%
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5 Apr 08 $100 +$101 +101%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Apr 07 $51 +$48 +93%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5 Apr 06 $12 +$10 +86%
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Apr 02 $195 −$192 -99%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Apr 01 $108 −$107 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5 Mar 27 $165 +$153 +92%
Spread: Clippers (-3.5) Mar 26 $297 +$272 +92%
Raptors vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Mar 26 $204 −$204 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Mar 26 $168 −$168 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Mar 26 $155 +$143 +92%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Mar 26 $200 +$170 +85%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 25 $257 +$98 +38%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5 Mar 24 $302 −$45 -15%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Mar 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 38m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $34 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 19¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $96 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $97 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $99 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $67 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $79 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng SELL 11¢ $79 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $80 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND SELL $79 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $210 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 14¢ $103 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 11¢ $103 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $195 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $167 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $78 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $79 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 17¢ $99 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 29¢ $92 29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 32h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colom BUY 11¢ $21 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.89 · official $514.89 · 565 history records