Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea64…140b crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-18%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$9
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.0% -57.5% 14% 14% -42.6%
≤30d 7 -53.0% -57.5% 14% 14% -42.6%
≤90d 7 -53.0% -57.5% 14% 14% -42.6%
all 7 -53.0% -57.5% 14% 14% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 14% -42.6%
10% -61.5% 14% -48.1%
15% -65.2% 14% -53.1%
20% -68.7% 0% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.89 · official $6.89 (match) · 23 history records