Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xea64…22ed world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 53L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$8
world 43% −$43
politics 6% +$3
sports 3% +$20
finance 2% +$72
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 34 +2.5% -7.3% 35% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 47 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 9% -9.3%
all 92 +3.7% -6.2% 42% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 8% -9.2%
10% -15.1% 5% -17.9%
15% -23.3% 5% -25.8%
20% -30.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 53
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage472d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $18 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $162 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $262 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $178 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $178 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $166 −$5 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $182 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $166 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $223 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $352 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $179 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $117 −$9 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $176 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $194 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $427 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $368 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $164 −$4 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $53 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $190 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $81 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $204 +$72 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $193 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $15 −$5 -31%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $197 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $229 −$33 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $317 −$10 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $7 +$5 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $82 +$1 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $307 −$5 -2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $38 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $256 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $262 +$7 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $920 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $47 +$7 +14%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $846 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $257 −$4 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $909 −$4 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $74 6m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $79 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 26h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $139 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $44 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $119 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $163 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $162 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $87 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $87 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $112 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $161 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $178 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $178 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $178 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $178 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records