Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EA 0xea66…bb43 world 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,266 (+12%) realized +$7,826 · open +$440
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$3,294per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,130
7 days−$3,674
14 days−$2,146
30 days+$1,352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$7,225
other 3% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.4% -36.1% 50% 50% -30.8%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 67% -6.8%
≤90d 19 +18.7% +7.4% 68% 63% +1.3%
all 19 +18.7% +7.4% 68% 63% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 63% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 42% -8.4%
15% -12.3% 26% -17.2%
20% -20.9% 11% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$5,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,338 vs −$1,743 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$4,840
Realized+$7,826
Unrealized+$440
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage255d
Avg bet$3,294
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 94¢ $3,500 $3,925 +$425 (+12%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $900 $915 +$15 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $7,200 +$4,130 +57%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 18 $500 +$126 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7,780 −$7,780 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $4,000 +$330 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 +$134 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $4,000 +$1,063 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $750 +$114 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5,500 +$2,434 +44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $6,975 +$2,451 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 25 $3,500 +$670 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $4,000 −$2,171 -54%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $2,177 +$889 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 26 $3,100 +$401 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $250 −$44 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $500 +$2,030 +406%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Apr 21 $291 −$291 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $5,993 +$2,619 +44%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $100 −$22 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9,222 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $3,000 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $210 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $2,000 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $150 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $416 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1,500 2d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $900 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $500 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $500 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $2,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $500 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1,230 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $393 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $500 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2,000 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4,000 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4,330 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1,134 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $7,933 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $864 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $7,934 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $750 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4,000 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $3,000 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $4,000 23d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1,000 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3,438 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4,438 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,840.36 · official $4,840.36 (match) · 63 history records