Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea67…554b sports 1283 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$386 (-5%) realized −$365 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%722W / 541L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$80
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$150
finance 19% −$74
other 13% −$86
world 11% −$34
politics 6% +$26
crypto 5% −$75
culture 5% −$21
tech 2% −$13
weather 1% +$5
economics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -82.1% -83.8% 12% 12% -81.1%
≤30d 159 -14.1% -22.3% 51% 49% -21.0%
≤90d 615 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 53% -13.0%
all 1263 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 52% -13.9%
10% -22.7% 46% -22.2%
15% -30.2% 40% -29.7%
20% -37.0% 34% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses722 / 541
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1263 / 1283
History coverage241d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $7 $14 +$6 (+86%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 20¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+154%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 64¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 63¢ 47¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Yanki Erel 56¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-93%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 63¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $7 +$16 +220%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +32%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $3 +$2 +73%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 04 $3 +$2 +67%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $3 +$2 +60%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Taro Daniel vs Mathys Erhard Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Jozef Kovalik Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Vicenza: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Joel Schwaerzler Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Wuning: Han Shi vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Ivanov Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Aidan Mayo Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Vicenza: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Mika Brunold Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Vicenza: Samuele Pieri vs Jerome Kym Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 02 $3 −$1 -18%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 02 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $3 +$2 +55%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 01 $3 +$2 +55%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $3 +$2 +62%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 56¢ $3 55m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 63¢ $3 56m
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 29h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 62¢ $3 6d
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 56¢ $3 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $23 7d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 57¢ $3 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $3 8d
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 9d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 66¢ $3 9d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Arthur Fery 58¢ $3 10d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $3 10d
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning BUY Harold Mayot 55¢ $3 10d
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski BUY Khololwam Montsi 61¢ $3 10d
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut BUY Jan Choinski 63¢ $3 12d
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 59¢ $3 12d
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden BUY Guy Den Ouden 62¢ $3 13d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 55¢ $3 13d
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Alexander Shevchenko 60¢ $3 13d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 13d
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias BUY Yosuke Watanuki 56¢ $3 14d
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $3 14d
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi BUY Leandro Riedi 65¢ $3 14d
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu BUY Tristan Boyer 64¢ $3 16d
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 64¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.05 · official $61.05 (match) · 2959 history records