Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea67…5b86 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.4% -15.3% 68% 28% -11.8%
≤30d 42 -10.8% -19.3% 64% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 42 -10.8% -19.3% 64% 26% -15.0%
all 42 -10.8% -19.3% 64% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 26% -15.0%
10% -27.0% 14% -23.1%
15% -34.1% 12% -30.6%
20% -40.5% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 91¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.84 (match) · 77 history records