Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea6d…3936 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-16%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$67
world 16% +$9
other 6% −$3
tech 6% −$33
finance 4% +$5
politics 2% +$4
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +46.3% +32.4% 75% 75% +15.3%
≤30d 9 +55.8% +41.0% 89% 89% +20.5%
≤90d 24 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 54% -16.4%
all 28 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 54% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 54% -25.4%
10% -16.8% 43% -32.5%
15% -24.8% 32% -39.1%
20% -32.2% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage137d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $33 +$6 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $14 +$24 +165%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$5 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $20 +$6 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 28 $14 +$2 +14%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $13 +$5 +38%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 20 $5 +$11 +206%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 13 $11 +$3 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 07 $9 +$1 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 21 $11 +$2 +20%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $6 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 30 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 23 $23 +$10 +45%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $27 +$20 +72%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 16 $17 +$26 +156%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $20 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $25 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $33 6d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $20 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $14 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $20 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 88¢ $14 28d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 72¢ $13 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 32d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 32¢ $5 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 75¢ $14 35d
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies BUY New York Mets 58¢ $7 40d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $11 40d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $10 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 90¢ $9 56d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 67¢ $11 60d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 83¢ $11 60d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 68d
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 61¢ $10 68d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu BUY Top Esports 33¢ $30 79d
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $6 86d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $14 86d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 110d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 28¢ $13 110d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 17¢ $33 116d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Rockets 58¢ $27 120d
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $13 121d
Bulls vs. Nets BUY Nets 39¢ $17 128d
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Hawks 54¢ $96 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.85 · official $48.85 (match) · 56 history records