Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea6d…ff8e sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$706 (+34%) realized +$706 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip
Net edge+90%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$25
sports 27% +$675
world 7% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+90.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 12 +116.1% +95.5% 58% 17% +21.6%
all 13 +110.2% +90.2% 62% 23% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +90.2% 23% +21.6%
10% +72.0% 23% +10.0%
15% +55.4% 23% -0.7%
20% +40.1% 15% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +271% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$46 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.87 per $1 lost it wins $4.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage93d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 23 $371 +$4 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 12 $466 +$29 +6%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $475 −$10 -2%
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) May 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 22 $83 $0 +0%
Spread: FC København (-2.5) May 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $53 +$2 +4%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $33 $0 +1%
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) Apr 18 $54 +$821 +1513%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 16 $14 −$5 -35%
Spread: Club León FC (-2.5) Apr 12 $314 +$16 +5%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $13 +$13 +100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - CCT South America Series #10 P Mar 23 $14 +$6 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $375 36m
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $371 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? BUY No 94¢ $466 10d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $465 10d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $475 11d
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia $35 31d
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) BUY FC Machida Zelvia $39 31d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $40 31d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL Yes $44 31d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $44 32d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes $40 32d
Spread: FC København (-2.5) BUY FC København $44 32d
Spread: FC København (-2.5) BUY FC København $49 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $26 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $29 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $25 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $28 33d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 77¢ $21 64d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 64d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 64d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 64d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 64d
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) BUY SC Braga $28 67d
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) BUY SC Braga $26 67d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $5 67d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $4 67d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $7 68d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $7 68d
Spread: Club León FC (-2.5) BUY Club Puebla 95¢ $314 73d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records