Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xea6f…dd06 crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,227 (+1%) realized +$2,227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate72%287W / 110L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$967per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$437
7 days+$689
14 days−$214
30 days+$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$4,064
sports 35% +$1,639
world 5% +$1,681
other 5% +$1,262
politics 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 58% -3.3%
≤30d 42 -1.9% -11.2% 69% 60% -5.0%
≤90d 89 -1.8% -11.2% 70% 57% -7.6%
all 397 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 53% -8.8%
10% -22.2% 32% -17.5%
15% -29.8% 18% -25.5%
20% -36.6% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$892) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$440 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses287 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 397
History coverage356d
Avg bet$967
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,324 −$1,300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1,810 +$158 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,236 +$705 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,085 −$1,701 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,526 +$2,045 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $304 +$67 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $709 +$519 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$105 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $695 +$223 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $540 −$530 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $608 +$130 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $507 +$111 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $491 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $638 −$613 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $454 +$156 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $1,011 +$169 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 02 $124 +$134 +108%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $638 +$117 +18%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $672 +$240 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $503 +$308 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 02 $419 +$180 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 01 $294 +$126 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $83 −$82 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $307 +$135 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $513 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $271 −$263 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $56 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $360 +$140 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $362 −$360 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $341 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $279 +$121 +44%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $161 +$60 +37%
Exact Score: Zweigen Kanazawa 1 - 0 Kōchi United SC? May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 22 $822 −$808 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 22 $773 +$49 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 22 $737 +$36 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 21 $630 +$107 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 21 $387 +$243 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 21 $300 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 20 $348 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 20 $293 +$55 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2306 history records