Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea74…76a7 sports 17 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$699 (-53%) realized −$677 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$435
other 21% −$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-88.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -87.6% -88.8% 9% 9% -86.2%
≤30d 11 -87.6% -88.8% 9% 9% -86.2%
≤90d 11 -87.6% -88.8% 9% 9% -86.2%
all 11 -87.6% -88.8% 9% 9% -86.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -88.8% 9% -86.2%
10% -89.9% 9% -87.6%
15% -90.9% 9% -88.8%
20% -91.8% 0% -89.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$72 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 42¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 18¢ $85 $79 −$6 (-8%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 40¢ $84 $77 −$7 (-8%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Ecuador 25¢ 24¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $91 +$33 +36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $86 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $88 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $82 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $83 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $85 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $87 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $86 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $89 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $91 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $91 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $50 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.18 · official $481.18 (match) · 28 history records