Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xea77…82ee sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days−$228
14 days+$43
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$50
other 37% −$61
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 38% -36.4%
≤30d 38 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 38 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 50% -9.2%
all 38 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 50% -9.2%
10% -29.9% 47% -17.9%
15% -36.7% 32% -25.9%
20% -42.9% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$29 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions11
Markets (closed)38 / 49
History coverage18d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $208 $202 −$6 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $76 $92 +$15 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $71 $84 +$14 (+19%)
France vs. Sweden: France O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $57 −$45 -80%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 29 $51 −$41 -81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $276 −$141 -51%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $10 +$12 +117%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $31 −$27 -90%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $56 −$6 -11%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $71 +$9 +13%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $40 +$19 +48%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$20 +39%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $25 −$12 -49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$45 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$42 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $237 +$60 +25%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $222 +$50 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$34 -84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $81 +$22 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$30 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$21 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$61 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$17 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 43m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $12 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 10¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $26 26h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $7 26h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 26h
France vs. Sweden: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 58¢ $50 28h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $11 28h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $13 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 32h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $16 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 33h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 33h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 39h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 47h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.63 · official $590.86 (match) · 117 history records