Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EA 0xea77…a2bd other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$115 (+12%) realized −$8 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$128
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.2% -34.2% 60% 40% -23.6%
≤30d 7 +20.3% +8.8% 71% 57% +20.6%
≤90d 7 +20.3% +8.8% 71% 57% +20.6%
all 7 +20.3% +8.8% 71% 57% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 57% +20.6%
10% -1.6% 57% +9.1%
15% -11.1% 43% -1.5%
20% -19.8% 29% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage24d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $863 $985 +$122 (+14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$8 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $152 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $630 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.73 · official $1,028.73 (match) · 46 history records