Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EA
0xea79…a9cc
sports · 298 markets active 42d ago
0.0score
−$206,787 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$199,725 · open −$2,773
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83,831
Realized−$199,725
Unrealized−$2,773
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses183 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$13,514
Open positions18
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7,309
Trades / day232.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 18 History 297 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,904
7 days−$2,904
14 days−$2,904
30 days−$2,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 97¢ $15,750 $19,868 +$4,118 (+26%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 96¢ $6,650 $9,625 +$2,975 (+45%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $16,550 $9,061 −$7,488 (-45%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 97¢ $3,185 $6,289 +$3,104 (+97%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $5,040 $5,904 +$864 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 63¢ 100¢ $3,154 $5,027 +$1,873 (+59%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $4,193 $4,426 +$234 (+6%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $3,710 $4,211 +$500 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No 87¢ 100¢ $3,069 $3,543 +$474 (+15%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? No 82¢ 100¢ $2,715 $3,294 +$579 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $2,482 $2,750 +$268 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $1,454 $1,718 +$263 (+18%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 24¢ 44¢ $894 $1,661 +$766 (+86%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? No 70¢ 100¢ $1,042 $1,489 +$447 (+43%)
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $933 $995 +$61 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $937 $991 +$54 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $1,044 $720 −$323 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $669 $708 +$39 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 69¢ 58¢ $759 $642 −$117 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 58¢ 96¢ $169 $282 +$113 (+67%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $185 $262 +$78 (+42%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 3¢ $3,599 $212 −$3,387 (-94%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 60¢ 40¢ $113 $77 −$36 (-32%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $290 $20 −$270 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 12 $1,042 +$447 +43%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 12 $933 +$61 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Jun 12 $669 +$39 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $770 −$770 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 12 $1,289 −$1,289 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $138,675 −$137,520 -99%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $274 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 01 $66,415 −$65,406 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $128 +$9 +7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $425 +$58 +14%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit? May 01 $497 +$36 +7%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $418 +$531 +127%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $868 +$123 +14%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 01 $1,184 +$101 +8%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $2,061 −$394 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,595 +$93 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $1,551 +$192 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 01 $1,217 +$606 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $54 −$32 -58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,410 −$129 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 01 $2,022 +$572 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $3,038 +$267 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 01 $12,749 +$1,140 +9%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20,840 +$1,270 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $35,789 +$4,149 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $79,644 +$7,092 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $35,377 +$21,078 +60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 01 $21,709 +$3,165 +15%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $2,683 +$289 +11%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $19,915 −$19,725 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Apr 30 $10,086 −$9,938 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $154,102 −$153,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $120,481 +$48,182 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $7,997 +$1,954 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $3,450 +$300 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 30 $11,930 +$4,009 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $31,974 −$6,457 -20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $8,972 +$5,273 +59%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $161 +$18 +11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Apr 30 $20,229 −$20,095 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $12,493 −$12,402 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $51,502 −$51,123 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $52,011 +$29,256 +56%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $35,862 −$14,243 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 30 $24,300 +$3,645 +15%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Apr 30 $15,128 −$10,094 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $49,753 −$5,200 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$407,600
world 27% +$153,830
finance 5% +$41,423
other 3% +$4,270
politics 1% +$7,174
crypto 0% +$2,241
tech 0% +$323
weather 0% −$958
culture 0% −$307
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $726 41d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $137,949 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 45¢ $20,641 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $4,075 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $4 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $781 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $8 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $8 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $4 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $8 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $1 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $4 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $44 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $2 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $10 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $19 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $1 41d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 44¢ $40,808 41d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $297 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $7,895 42d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY FURIA 50¢ $2 42d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY FURIA 50¢ $50 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $13 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 76¢ $19,137 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $25 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 76¢ $19,137 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $11,685 42d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY FURIA 50¢ $10,035 42d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 76¢ $115,828 42d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL Vitality 100¢ $168,662 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.6% -59.8% 38% 12% -52.6%
≤30d 8 -55.6% -59.8% 38% 12% -52.6%
≤90d 297 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 41% -18.1%
all 297 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 41% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover232.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 41% -18.1%
10% -22.6% 31% -25.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 24% -33.1%
20% -36.9% 20% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83,831.26 · official $83,831.26 (match) · 3500 history records