Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xea7c…41f6 politics 212 markets active 10h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%51W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$5
other 28% −$8
crypto 8% −$1
sports 7% −$3
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 89 -0.5% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 168 -0.8% -10.2% 18% 0% -10.0%
all 206 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses51 / 155
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)206 / 212
History coverage100d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 09 $25 $0 -2%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 10h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $8 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 25h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 25h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 26h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $7 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 46h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 47h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $40.04 (match) · 1186 history records