Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EA 0xea7d…569e crypto 651 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$825 (-8%) realized −$839 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%235W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$86
14 days−$117
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$921
other 3% +$26
weather 2% −$121
sports 0% −$14
world 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -31.9% -38.4% 26% 26% -21.2%
≤30d 92 -21.3% -28.8% 32% 30% -18.3%
≤90d 208 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 26% -21.7%
all 645 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 31% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 31% -19.3%
10% -32.2% 26% -27.0%
15% -38.7% 21% -34.1%
20% -44.7% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$839
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses235 / 410
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)645 / 651
History coverage153d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+51%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$13 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -59%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$21 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$8 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$18 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.93 · official $130.94 (match) · 2052 history records