Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EA 0xea7d…e94e other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+6%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$44
crypto 11% −$30
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -3.8%
≤30d 13 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -3.8%
≤90d 13 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -3.8%
all 13 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 46% -3.8%
10% -13.4% 46% -13.0%
15% -21.7% 46% -21.4%
20% -29.4% 46% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 55¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 +$32 +156%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$24 +116%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$20 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $31 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $21 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $20 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 45¢ $21 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 30¢ $21 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $15 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.18 · official $30.27 · 20 history records